Abstract
Background:
Current prognostication in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) utilizes MIPSS70 (mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system for transplant-age patients), MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (karyotype-enhanced MIPSS70) and GIPSS (genetically-inspired prognostic scoring system, which is based on mutations and karyotype) (JCO 2018;36:310; JCO doi: 10.1200/JCO.2018.78.9867; Leukemia. 2018;doi:10.1038/s41375-018-0107). These contemporary models are inter-complimentary and highly efficient in predicting overall survival. However, specific risk factors for very long survival (e.g. 20+ years) and short-term mortality (i.e. death within 5 years of diagnosis) have not been systematically looked into.
Methods:
Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Logistic regression statistics was used to identify predictors of 20-year survival and 5-year mortality. Variables evaluated in the logistic model included those that are currently listed in MIPSS70, MIPSS70+ version 2.0 and GIPSS, as well as age (≤70 vs >70 years) and sex. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to estimate predictive accuracy. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all calculations.
Results:
A total of 1,282 consecutive patients with PMF (median age 65 years, range 19-92; 63% males) were used to identify 26 (2%) patients (median age 51 years, range 28-71; 38% males) who survived their disease for at least 20 years (very long-lived patients) and 626 (49%) patients (median age 68 years, range 27-92; 66% males) who died within 5 years of their diagnosis. Clinically-derived information, including the clinical variables used in MIPSS70 and MIPSS70+ version 2.0, with the exception of fibrosis grade (information available in 60%), was available in 99% of the study population; cytogenetic information was available in 94%, driver mutational status in 71% and the full profile of high molecular risk (HMR) mutations, including ASXL1, SRSF2, U2AF1 Q157, EZH2, IDH1 and IDH2, in 42%.
MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution for the entire study population (n=1,282) was 4% very low risk, 16% low risk, 19% intermediate risk, 40% high risk and 21% very high risk; the corresponding percentages for the 26 very long-lived patients were 14%, 29%, 14%, 43% and 0% and for the 626 short-term survivors were 0%, 4%, 10%, 47% and 39% (p<0.001). Cytogenetic, driver mutation and HMR mutation information was available in 100%, 58% and 27% of the 26 long-term survivors, respectively, and 98%, 63% and 39% of the 626 short-term survivors.
Multivariable logistic regression analysis of 20-year survival identified the following seven variables as being favorable: age ≤70 years (p=0.002); female sex (p=0.03); hemoglobin level ≥10 g/dl for women and ≥11 g/dl for men (p=0.03), leukocyte count ≤25 x 109/l (p=0.009), platelet count ≥100 x 109/l (p=0.002), circulating blasts ≤1% (p=0.03) and absence of constitutional symptoms (p=0.04). The particular phenotypic profile exhibited a high degree of predictive accuracy with an estimated AUC of 0.90 (Figure 1a); karyotype and mutations did not retain significance in this particular analysis; in fact, 5 (71%) of the 7 long-term survivors who were informative harbored at least one HMR mutation. A similar analysis for 5-year mortality identified the following risk factors: high molecular risk mutations (p<0.001); unfavorable or very high risk karyotype (p<0.001); absence of type 1/like CALR mutations (p<0.001); age >70 years (p<0.001); constitutional symptoms (p<0.001); hemoglobin level <10 g/dl for women and <11 g/dl for men (p<0.001); leukocyte count >25 x 109/l (p=0.004); and circulating blasts >1% (p=0.001); predictive accuracy was estimated at AUC 0.87 (Figure 1b).
Conclusions:
The phenotypic profile of long-lived patients in PMF includes young age (≤70 years old), female sex, asymptomatic disease (i.e. no constitutional symptoms) and absence of moderate to severe anemia, thrombocytopenia or leukocytosis and ≤1% circulating blasts; each one of these parameters, with the exception of female sex, were present in ≥80% of long-term survivors. Karyotype and mutations were more relevant in predicting short-term mortality.
No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.
